The Appetite
What providers actually want — not what they say at conferences
This chapter maps the divergence between stated appetite (what providers say they fund) and revealed appetite (where cheques actually go). It documents four critical shifts reshaping the landscape in 2025–2026 and identifies underserved sectors where competition for capital is lower.
Where capital is actually flowing
- Climate dominance — 40–50% of DFI portfolios; 62%+ of blended finance; EIB Global deployed €3.1B in Africa in 2025 with 46% to climate
- Infrastructure anchor — AFC surpassed $1B revenue (2024); AFC + AUDA-NEPAD launched the $1.5B AAMFI facility
- Financial inclusion / SME finance — IFC announced $310M at Africa Financial Summit (Nov 2025)
Stated vs revealed appetite
| Provider | What They Say | What They Actually Fund |
|---|---|---|
| Multilateral DFIs | Energy, health, education, agriculture, digital, fragile states | Energy + infrastructure 40–50%; financial intermediaries 20–30% |
| Bilateral DFIs | Climate, gender, governance, food security | Climate dominant; geopolitics increasingly shape allocation (DFC oil & gas, 2025) |
| Impact Funds | Healthcare, financial inclusion, agriculture, education | Fintech dominates; healthcare in pharma distribution; education nearly absent |
| Foundations | Youth, education, health, governance | Grants follow programme-officer expertise and existing relationships |
Four critical shifts (2025–2026)
- DFIs retreating from venture risk — DFI share of Africa VC fell from 45% (2022–24) to 27% (2025); Africa VC fundraising fell 87% by value
- African domestic capital mobilisation accelerating — $1.1T+ in institutional savings being mobilised through guarantees and listed instruments
- Geopolitics reshaping bilateral appetite — DFC expanded to oil & gas and critical minerals ($1.8B Orion); European DFIs doubling down on climate
- Gender and youth becoming cross-cutting requirements — IFC Nigeria requires 40%+ of intermediary funds to women-owned businesses
Underserved sectors — less competition, real opportunity
| Sector | Why Underserved | How to Make Investable |
|---|---|---|
| Sport development & infrastructure | Not a DFI sector; measurement frameworks miss sport outcomes | Sport Satellite Account economic case; position as economic infrastructure |
| Creative industries | Intangible assets; unpredictable revenue; IP valuation challenges | Revenue-based finance; portfolio aggregation; IP as collateral substitute |
| Youth employment & skills | Outcomes diffuse and long-term | Outcomes contracts linking training to verified employment; employer co-financing |
| Biodiversity (non-carbon) | Revenue models immature; verification thin; tenure complex | Stack carbon + biodiversity + ecotourism + PES revenues |
Where you stand · appetite
Your sector is currently not on the climate / infrastructure / fintech main line.
Re-positioning of your investment case and identification of the specific providers whose mandates still match.
You are in sport, creative, youth employment, or biodiversity — less competition but harder to make legible.
Economic measurement framework (e.g. SSA-style accounts) and a structured pitch designed for an under-mapped market.
You are in climate or fintech and your deal looks like every other deal.
Differentiation work: additionality narrative, gender / youth integration, and structuring that stands out in a crowded pipeline.